STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF FOG DICE ROLLS

Involving the three dimensions of number of dice, POA and troop quality re-rolls, the FOG system managed to capture a huge amount of variation and subtley with only 6 sided dice.

If you just want a quick rule of thumb, and don't want to get into the probabilities, use this:
  • One dice is about equal to one POA
  • One troop quality level is about equal to one half a POA


MISSILE COMBAT
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You should see the numbers you are familiar with here, they are the % chances that appear when you mouse over the target.
General rules of thumb:
  • MF archers are twice as effective as LF archers
  • Poor troops are almost useless at -1 or -2 POA - so don't worry about those Grenadine poor LF crossbows! Close to parity at +2 though
  • One level of troop quality is about equal to 1/2 POA

IMPACT/MELEE COMBAT
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Again, you should be familiar with these numbers from the impact/melee mouse overs.

General rules of thumb:
  • +1 POA has about the same impact as 1 dice

COHESION TESTS
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  • Chance to fail is quite high - average units will fail half the time, even without modifiers
  • In the middle of the range, a modifier is about equal to one troop quality level
  • Don't expect routers to rally on their own. even if above 75% strength and superior, they only have 10% chance to rally (in command helps)

ANARCHY CHARGES
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Because the anarchy test falls in the middle of the 2 dice distribution curve, the first couple of modifiers have the most effect.
  • Expect anarchy for undrilled out of command - every turn, nearly half of your line will go!
  • Putting these undrilled units in command will reduce anarchy by one third
  • Don't count on anarchy of pikemen with a troop commander adjacent - you'll wait 12 turns on average!

Spreadsheet for you to play around with